Comments on: Intuitive explanation of the Monty Hall problem https://codesynthesis.com/~boris/blog//2008/05/11/intuitive-monty-hall/ Boris Kolpackov's blog about software Mon, 27 Apr 2026 02:28:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: Anonymous https://codesynthesis.com/~boris/blog//2008/05/11/intuitive-monty-hall/#comment-455 Anonymous Tue, 17 Jun 2008 09:06:55 +0000 https://codesynthesis.com/~boris/blog//2008/05/11/intuitive-monty-hall/#comment-455 The way I think of it is that you are asked to divide the doors up into 2 groups. One of one door, one of two doors. What are the probabilities of the prize being in each group? It's easy to say 33% and 66%. So now only thing to do is pick the group with the 2 doors. Due to the mechanics of the game you are initially forced in the the group with one door (your choice). You go back to the 2 door group by switching. The information about the goat is essentially irrelevant, and there just to make the drama of the game, and to fool you into thinking it's now 50:50. The way I think of it is that you are asked to divide the doors up into 2 groups. One of one door, one of two doors. What are the probabilities of the prize being in each group? It’s easy to say 33% and 66%. So now only thing to do is pick the group with the 2 doors.

Due to the mechanics of the game you are initially forced in the the group with one door (your choice). You go back to the 2 door group by switching.

The information about the goat is essentially irrelevant, and there just to make the drama of the game, and to fool you into thinking it’s now 50:50.

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